Backtesting

USD/CNH — H1

MAGIC 2.6.14 · Short only · 27 Jun 2012 → 25 Sept 2025 · 13.25 years

Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit

405 Trades
1.26 Profit factor
50.86% Win rate
2.35 Return / drawdown
13.51% Maximum drawdown
2.32% CAGR

Cumulative return

0%10%20%30%201220132017202020222025USD/CNH — Cumulative return+34.8%

Cumulative return on the $10,000 test account, rebuilt from the report's own trade-by-trade record.

Drawdown

-10%-5%0%201220132017202020222025USD/CNH — Drawdown-13.5%

How far the account sat below its own previous high at every point in the test. The deepest point is the maximum drawdown — rebuilt here from the trade record, and it matches the 13.51% the report states.

Return by year

2012: +1.4%2013: +2.7%2014: +2.0%2015: -7.7%2016: -3.3%2017: +13.2%2018: +5.8%2019: +1.2%2020: +2.0%2021: +3.9%2022: -3.9%2023: +4.6%2024: +4.8%2025: +5.0%-10%0%10%20%20122015201820212025USD/CNH — Return by year

Compounded return for each calendar year of the test.

Month by month

144Months traded
45.1% Profitable months — 65 of 144
11/14Profitable years
Monthly return as a percentage of account equity at the start of that month.
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear
2012+1.8+0.5+2.2+2.1-1.6-3.4+1.4
2013+0.5-0.6+0.5+2.3+3.3+1.6+0.3-1.6-0.9-1.8-0.5-0.4+2.7
2014-1.3+0.0+1.6+0.0+1.2+0.9+1.5-1.4+0.7-0.7-0.5+2.0
2015-1.7-1.0-0.6+0.9-0.9-0.2-0.3-0.8-0.7-1.0-1.6-7.7
2016-0.5-0.1+0.4-0.9-0.6-0.3+2.7+0.1-1.9-2.3-3.3
2017+4.6-0.7-0.3+3.2-1.3-0.1+1.6-0.3+1.9+0.4+3.5+13.2
2018+4.1+0.1-0.0+0.3+0.9-1.5-1.3+0.7+2.5+5.8
2019-0.2+1.8+2.1-0.6-0.6+0.2-0.2-0.8+2.2-0.3-1.1-1.1+1.2
2020+0.7-0.5-0.3-1.4-0.1+2.4+0.4+4.3-0.3-2.0-1.1+2.0
2021+1.9-0.7-0.9-0.6+5.1-1.6-0.2-0.4-1.4+2.9-0.4+0.3+3.9
2022-1.4-1.4-2.0-0.2-0.8-0.4+1.1+1.3-0.1-3.9
2023+1.4+0.9-0.7-1.2-0.1-0.4+0.3+0.7-0.8+4.5+4.6
2024-0.4+0.8+1.3-0.4+0.0-1.4+2.9+1.9+0.4-0.1-0.2+4.8
2025+1.8+1.3-0.6+0.2+0.7-0.4+0.2+1.4+0.2+5.0

Trade composition

  • Winning vs losing trades

    206 wins(50.9%)199 losses

  • Gross profit vs gross loss

    $16,858 won(55.8%)$13,380 lost

  • Average win vs average loss

    $81.83 per win(54.9%)$67.24 per loss

  • Longest winning vs losing streak

    8 wins in a row(50.0%)8 losses in a row

How the result breaks down across every trade in the test.

Fixed-size test · 0.01 lots · $10,000 initial deposit

Statistics

Wins / losses ratio
1.04
Payout ratio
1.22
Expectancy
$8.59
Standard deviation
$95.60
Market exposure
1.53%
Average bars in trade
12.52
AHPR
2.48
Z-score
-0.99
Z-probability
83.89%
Longest stagnation
1,664 d
Stagnation
34.66%

Trades

Winning trades
206
Losing trades
199
Gross profit
$16,857.99
Gross loss
$13,379.91
Average win
$81.83
Average loss
$67.24
Largest win
$465.54
Largest loss
-$131.34
Longest winning streak
8
Longest losing streak
8
Average bars in wins
14.95
Average bars in losses
10.01

Headline metrics

Net profit
$3,478.08
Total return
+34.8%
Sharpe ratio
0.49
Average trade
$8.59
Average yearly profit
$267.54
Average yearly return
2.68%
Maximum drawdown
$1,481.25
Annual return / max drawdown
0.17
R expectancy
0.13
Strategy quality number
0.90
SQN score
0.21
Profit in ticks
7,680

Source document

USDCNH SELL H1 MAGIC 2.6.14.pdf

PDF · 23 pages · 326 KB

The source report also contains breakdown charts (profit by hour, by weekday, long versus short, by trade duration) and the trade-by-trade list.

SHA-2562fd23d7870932f69f091b01801c00d4e602bb1c22aabdb2876766d6f6b1c52f3

Simulated results. These figures come from historical backtests, not live trading. Backtested performance is hypothetical, benefits from hindsight, and is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Our live, independently verified track record is on the results page.